Due to the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic, the Turkish economy, as well as many other countries expect their economies to shrink this year. However, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has forecast that the Turkish economy will bounce back next year by 6%. In the latest edition of the Regional Economic Prospects, it states: “Turkey is likely to see a contraction of 3.5% in 2020 because of the economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic.”
2021 recovery in Turkey
In a recent statement, it said: “the bank expects the country to recover rapidly in 2021 with GDP growth of 6%. The forecast is heavily dependent on the duration and extent of social distancing measures to contain the virus.”
Downturn due to COVID-19
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has predicted that almost 40 economies where it currently operates will decrease by an average of 3.5% this year due to the global health crisis, however it does foresee this rebounding by 4.8% next year. It has said that the downturn could be larger than expected if social distancing measures need to stay in place longer than anticipated.
Beata Javorcik, the Chief Economist of the EBRD said that: “the crisis has been a massive hit, and coming out of it will be just as challenging. This is not the time to engage in economic nationalism and protectionism but a time to shape a better future through international commitment, free trade, climate change mitigation, and Economic Cooperation.”
The EBRD are cautious with regards to growth predictions as these are subject to “unprecedented uncertainty” due to the global health crisis. The investment areas have also seen prices tumble for commodities such as oil. The institution sent a warning that “potentially significant longer term economic, political and social event effects” could make the downturn far more painful.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Founded in 1991, this London-based bank opened originally to assist the former Soviet bloc countries in switching to free market economies, however, it has since extended and now invests in emerging economies from Central and Eastern Europe, The Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.
In 2019, the EBRD celebrated its 10th year of engagement in Turkey. Since it opened it has made investments of almost 12 billion Euros in various areas of the Turkish economy, with nearly all of these investments being in the private sector. In the 38 economies where the bank invests, the 6.7-billion-euro portfolio in Turkey is the largest. Last year the bank provided 1 billion Euros in debt and equity financing for Turkish projects.
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