To many of us 2050 is still the stuff of science fiction. However, to the analysts at Pricewaterhouse Coopers reckon they’ve got it figured out - some of it, anyway.
Professional services firm PwC has studied world economies and come up with a list detailing which countries will be the biggest and powerful in three decades’ time. The report, called The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050? ranks 32 countries by their projected gdp by purchasing power parity, or PPP.
Macroeconomists use PPP to evaluate economic productivity and standards of living within countries over a period of time.
Interestingly, many of the world’s current power economies like Japan and Germany will slip down the rankings, to be replaced by emerging markets like Turkey, India and Indonesia.
Turkey, which is currently ranked in 17th place, is set to become the 11th largest economy by 2050, with a predicted economy of just over $5 trillion.
Turkey is among the world’s top producers of agricultural products, textiles, vehicles, ships, construction materials and appliances. While many economies struggled to recover from the global recession, Turkey’s economy expanded by 9.2% in 2010, and 8.5% in 2011, turning it into the fastest-growing European economy, and one of the fastest-growing in the world.
How will Turkey achieve its 11th place ranking?
Officials from the business and government sectors believe the fastest route to export growth - which underpins the Turkish economy - is targeting markets outside the European Union. Turkey’s agricultural sector is huge, accounting for almost a third of employment in the country, and the country is in the world’s top producer of hazelnuts, cherries, figs, apricots and pomegranates. It’s also the largest TV producer in Europe, the fifth largest motor vehicle manufacturer in the world, and one of the foremost shipbuilding countries on the planet.
Five years ago, the EU accounted for more than half of Turkey’s exports. This has now dropped to a third, as Turkey concentrates on expanding its reach into the Middle East and further beyond, to Africa.
Turkey has 430,000km of roads and more than 12,000km of rail network. Its status as a regional flight hub saw its largest airport, Istanbul Ataturk Airport, serve 31.8 million passengers in the first six months of 2014. The new airport, Istanbul New International Airport, will have the capacity to serve 150m passengers each year, making it the busiest in the world.
Turkey’s geographical position means it’s not only a hub for airlines and ships, but also for fuel transport, with more than 11,000 kilometres of gas or petroleum pipelines.
Each of these areas is currently in rapid expansion, with the government spending billions to ensure infrastructure is in place for future growth.
Tourism is one of the country’s most dynamic and rapidly developing sectors. Around 30 million people visit Turkey each year, contributing $18 billion to the economy - 11% of the country’s GDP. Despite a poor year last year, spending and promotion in this sector aims to increase the global tourist share year by year.
Turkey’s banking sector is among the strongest and most dynamic in Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. The strength and stability of the economy has contributed to high levels of foreign direct investment: in 2007 Turkey attracted around $2.1 billion FDI, a figure that includes the millions received from Turkish property investment. Last year that figure was closer to $18 billion. Officials and analysts believe this figure will reach $22 billion by 2020.
See the entire rankings below. All numbers are in US dollars.
32. Netherlands — $1.496 trillion.
31. Colombia — $2.074 trillion.
30. Poland — $2.103 trillion.
29. Argentina — $2.365 trillion.
28. Australia — $2.564 trillion.
27. South Africa — $2.570 trillion.
26. Spain — $2.732 trillion.
25. Thailand — $2.782 trillion.
24. Malaysia — $2.815 trillion.
23. Bangladesh — $3.064 trillion.
22. Canada — $3.1 trillion.
21. Italy — $3.115 trillion.
20. Vietnam — $3.176 trillion.
19. Philippines — $3.334 trillion.
18. South Korea — $3.539 trillion.
17. Iran — $3.900 trillion.
16. Pakistan — $4.236 trillion.
15. Egypt — $4.333 trillion.
14. Nigeria — $4.348 trillion.
13. Saudi Arabia — $4.694 trillion.
12. France — $4.705 trillion.
11. Turkey — $5.184 trillion.
10. United Kingdom — $5.369 trillion.
9. Germany — $6.138 trillion.
8. Japan — $6.779 trillion.
7. Mexico — $6.863 trillion.
6. Russia — $7.131 trillion.
5. Brazil — $7.540 trillion.
4. Indonesia — $10.502 trillion.
3. United States — $34.102 trillion.
2. India — $44.128 trillion.
1. China — $58.499 trillion.
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