Recapping Day One of Turkey’s 2023 Election

Where the Election Stands After Day One

Turkey’s May 14 election saw a record number of Turks head to the polls to decide the future leadership of the country. It was a day full of suspense with many twists and turns lasting through the night and into the morning of May 15. No winner was declared after the first night of vote counting. That leaves us at Property Turkey and many around the world to try and make sense of where this election currently stands and what will happen moving forward.

There are mixed reports on what the exact number of outstanding votes remaining, as there has been several cases of objections and recounts to go along with uncounted votes from abroad. So, the official count from the Turkish Election Board has yet to be determined as of the writing of this article. A reminder that a candidate is required to obtain over 50% of the vote to win the election.

With that said, the majority of domestic and international media outlets are reporting estimates as follows:

49.4% - RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN

44.96% - KEMAL KILICDAROGLU

5.2% - SINAN OGAN

When Will We Know the Final Results from Yesterday?

The Turkish Election Board, YSK (Yuksek Secim Kurulu), is the governing body of the election process. Ahmet Yener is the current head of the Supreme Election Council. He has been periodically updating the public throughout the election reporting period. We will look out for his official announcements as pertaining to the status of the final election results in the coming hours and days.

What to Look for Moving Forward 

Given the available information at this point, there is a growing sentiment, among candidates and news outlets, that none of the candidates will in fact reach the 50% threshold required to win the presidency after day one. This will, in turn, activate a run- off election to be held in two weeks. The run-off will only include the top two vote getters from day one, which in this case is Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu.

With Sinan Ogan bowing out of the race, there will be a growing interest in how his 5% electorate will turn out in a run-off scenario.

How Do Turkey’s Run-Off Elections Work?

Turkish run-off elections will operate in the same manner as the general election. However, the decision will only include two candidates. The winner then will gain the seat of President.

In parliamentary races, Turkey uses a form of proportional representation known as the D'Hondt method within multi-member constituencies. This doesn't typically involve a run-off in the same way, as seats are allocated based on vote share.

How Turkey’s 600 Seat Parliament is Shaping Up

With the margin being so close in the Presidential race, the races for Turkey’s Parliamentary seats have largely been overlooked. The Grand National Assembly of Turkey, Turkiye Buyuk Millet Meclisi, has 600 seats up for election this cycle. With that

being the case, we have yet to grasp a concrete picture of how those seats will be distributed to the national parties. We will also look forward to these results over the coming days.

What is at Stake in the Real Estate Sector? 

As the election plays out over the month of May, we will do our best to keep our clients updated on the results and our perspective on their impact on the Turkish real estate market. For more information on each candidate and the possible ramifications of each man’s election, please reference Property Turkey’s 2023 Election Primer.

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