In the second quarter, Turkey’s economy is likely to have surged 21.7%; this is mainly due to a rebound from a steep fall which would have been caused, according to a poll, by the restrictions from COVID-19 last year. This would bring about an expansion for the full year of 7.95%.
14 economists show forecasts in the Reuters poll ranged from 18.1% to 24% during the second quarter, while their full-year estimates are set at between 4.6% and 9%.
The growing economy of Turkey
The economy of 720 billion USD grew by 1.8% last year, despite plunging 10.3% in the second quarter as COVID-19 took a toll on the world; this economy was only one of a few globally to avoid an annual contraction, even during the pandemic fallout.
Turkey also imposed several restrictions this year too, including curfews in cities, restaurant closures and weekend lockdowns; there were also tougher brief lockdowns in April and May due to a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases. The broader economy and manufacturing economy were largely unaffected by the measures, which were lifted in June this year.
Expansion in Industry
Industrial production expanded 41.4% year-on-year during the second quarter, which were seen as a precursor to growth figures.
Treasury and Finance Minister, Lutfi Elvan explained that while the Turkish government officially predicted 5.8% growth overall, with a strong performance in the second quarter, it could top 8% annually.
Driven by the leap during the period of April and June, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also explained that the full-year growth could exceed the original second quarter predictions.
Fitch’s predictions for Turkey
Fitch, the global credit rating agency, revised their forecast earlier this month for Turkey’s 2021 growth and it now expects the economy of Turkey to expand 7.9% overall in the coming year, which was up from their previous estimates in June of 6.3% growth overall.
The strong first quarter and base effect were cited as well as the continual resilience in economic activities in Turkey. TurkStat, the Turkish Statistical Institute, is anticipated to announce gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter.
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