Invest in Turkey say Goldman Sachs

Caesar Maasry the head of emerging market strategy at the American Multinational investment banking Goldman Sachs has tipped Turkey, India and Taiwan to be the best emerging markets for 2015. What was it though that made these three countries stand out and what information is available to see how Maasry came to this decision?
Goldman Sachs

Maasry had explained that at beginning of 2014 the question was whether the location of the emerging market would be more important than looking at the aggregate equity index, a point that is still questioned going into 2015, as there will be those who benefit and others that lose due to the falling commodity prices, a strong US economy and the predicted FED increases.  

When looking specifically at the emerging markets Maasry said that it was fair to expect the Turkish and Indian oil importers were set to see improvements to account deficits because of lower oil prices, and also that they would not have to go through the events of 2013 when the FED withdrew from monetary expansion. He also confirmed that there was a strong possibility that both countries would announce a drop in the interest rate in the first half of the year. Maasry also predicted that Taiwan as the world leader in electronic exports would see a good increase in demand from the U.S. 

The senior economist Shweta Singh from Lombard Street Research added that she viewed demographics, an ability to catch up in terms of growth and being more competitive would be key in terms of performance. Shweta went on to predict that she felt India was the country she expected to perform best, whilst markets to watch were Mexico, Turkey and the Philippines.

Turkey in 2015

In an interview on 16th January 2015, the Deputy Turkish Prime Minister Ali Babacan discussed how Turkey will continue to flourish and become even stronger in the year to come.

In comparison to 2014, stronger economic growth and lower inflation will ensure that 2015 will be a better year for the economy. Although the growth rate last year of 3% was good, this year Turkey expects to be one of the fasting growing of all economies in the EU. 
Ali Babacan

The price of oil will continue in a positive vein and every drop in price will decrease the $4.4 billion deficit with a real benefit expected no later than June. Whilst the economists confirmed that provided that the price of oil remained at $50 a barrel Turkey’s energy bill will reduce by 50% this year. Another benefit from the declining oil price will also enable Turkey to reduce inflation to 6% or lower meaning that the growth rate will increase to 4%.

Numbers participating in the Individual Pension System is set to increase further particularly with the state contributions now making up 25% as a form of encouragement. There will also be an announcement soon to reveal a package that has been designed to support industrial investments. The government also aims to create a new way for private companies to borrow funds using equity based financing. 

Babacan reiterated the desire of the government in respect to the citizens of Turkey keeping their gold in banks rather than under their mattresses! It is believed that Turkish Residents are holding over 5,000 tons of gold with a monetary value of almost $200 billion in their homes as personal savings rather than depositing these in the banks! 


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