In a half year estimate, Turkish government adjusted down its growth forecasts for 2014 - 2016. At the same time the government increased its target for unemployment and inflation. Deputy Prime Minister, Ali Babacan, announced on 8 October that Turkey adjusted its 2013 growth target downwards from 4% GDP growth pa to 3.6%. The government also revised its 2014 - 2016 growth forecasts from 5%pa to 4%pa.
Ali Babacan, Turkish deputy prime minister, cited downturn in the recent global forecasts as the main reason for Turkey revising its own economic growth predictions for the next 3 years. The IMF has recently revised global output forecasts downwards from 3.6% to 2.9% for 2013 and from 4% to 3.6% for 2014. At 3.6% GDP growth rate for 2013, Turkey is still expected to outperform global growth rates by some 25%, this includes some of the emerging economies of the world that have been posting strong growth rates in recent years. To name a few, IMF has just dropped India's growth rate forecast for 2013 to 3.7% from 5.7% based on lower demand for its produce. This represents a 35% downward revision in India's GDP growth forecast for 2013, whilst Turkey's revision accounts for 10% reduction in estimates.
According to the IMF, another major emerging market, Brazil, will report the lowest GDP growth rate in 2014 among the BRICS members, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. IMF reports Brazil's 2014 economic growth prediction as 2.5%. This is 32% less than Turkey's rate of expected expansion next year. Brazil's 2013 growth rate is maintained at 2.5% some 30% less than Turkish GDP growth for 2013 as forecasted.
In a second revision for 2013, Russia on the other hand, slashed its economic growth rate for 2013 to 1.8%. This is half the expansion expected in Turkey for the same period. Russia attributes its slow down to a low industrial output and a weakening of the feel good effect that helped Putin win his third Presidential term. Russia also upwardly revised its inflation predictions for 2013 and 2014, however, announced that they would not touch interest rates.
South Africa is expected to report 3% economic growth for 2013. China, world's second largest economy, is forecasted to end 2013 with 7% GDP growth, which is likely to be the highest in the world for the year. This is the lowest growth rate in the last 20 years for China.
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