Turkey’s $10B Jet Deal to ignite Real Estate Surge

Turkey has announced a historic $10 billion USD export agreement with Indonesia. The deal will see Turkey export 48 of its KAAN fifth generation domestically developed fighter jets to Indonesia and is a statement of Turkey’s growing geopolitical influence. The contract is the country’s most significant defense export ever.

Geopolitics meets investor confidence

The success of KAAN showcases Turkey’s image as a self-reliant and high-tech country. New partnerships such as this one often unlocks further cooperation across other sectors and areas. In Turkey’s case, trade, infrastructure, tourism, and real estate. Turkey’s real estate industry looks set to benefit from new flights, connectivity, and development projects linked specifically to defense.

Domestic sentiment: from protests to optimism

Marred by recent internal political upheavals including the detention of Istanbul’s Mayor, countrywide protests, economic problems, and volatility of the Turkish Lira, the KAAN deal has come at the perfect time to boost public morale. Social media in Turkey has taken note, with platforms including Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube magnifying positive reporting of national successes. Data shows that more than 66% of the population use social media in Turkey.

Timing the Turkish real estate upswing

Easing of monetary policy in Turkey in 2025

Data shows that the Central Bank’s policy rate peaked at 46% in April. Projections from experts have this falling to around 44% by mid-2025 and 35% by the end of 2025. For the real estate market, lower rates mean cheaper mortgages for Turkish nationals, an increase in lending, and demand. A Turkish real estate rally could well be witnessed by the end of 2025.

Real estate implications: Infrastructure, industrial growth, public sentiment

1. Defense-linked infrastructure projects are likely to boost demand.

2. High-net-worth migration to Turkey that is linked to defense deals.

3. Lower interest rates unlock mass investment from Turkish nationals.

4. Tourism and national pride attract foreign buyers back to market.

Timeline: When will real estate benefits happen in Turkey?

Q3 2025: Central Bank starts cutting (~200 bps).

Q4 2025: Rate down to ~35%, inflation improves.

H1 2026: Continued cuts heading towards ~25%.

Q3 2026: Full-scale boom, FDI inflows expected.

Where are the investor opportunities in Turkey?

Where and what to buy: Look for high-yield rentals, growing secondary cities, luxury coastal homes, and mixed-use developments. These are poised to benefit most from the ripple effects of Turkey’s rising industrial and geopolitical power.

Strategic positioning and timing: Investors are urged to time acquisitions from mid-2025 onwards. Monitor defense-tied projects in Turkey and diversify assets to include industrial and tactical coastal markets.

Risks that need monitoring: National inflation persistence, unexpected geopolitical issues in the region, and global macro tightening could present new hurdles for Turkey to overcome.

A real estate wave in the making

Indonesia’s $10 billion USD KAAN fighter jet deal is more than just a record defense contract, it’s a national milestone for Turkey. Backed by a pouring social media optimism and upcoming rate normalisation, this moment could mark the start of a new Turkish real estate boom. Experienced investors who see the connection have the opportunity to ride the wave early.